Free Fantasy Baseball Closer Report and Draft Kit

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Joe Nathan has Torn ligment in elbow

Bad news for Twins fans and anyone who has drafted Joe Nathan so far this season. Nathan tore a ligament in his elbow and may need Tommy John surgery. We will know more in two weeks, but I wouldn't pin my hopes on Nathan for 2010. The guys on the roster to take the closer role are Jon Rauch and Matt Guerrier. I don't think it will be either. The guy on the roster I like is Francisco Liriano. He's a pitcher with great lights out stuff and he has limitations with his past arm problems. Clearly he is in the front running for the closer spot on the Twins.

If the Twins aren't ready to put Liriano in that role, look for the Twins to go out and sign or trade for a closer. John Smoltz is out there? The Blue Jays may trade Frasor or Downs? Joel Hanrahan could be acquired and even B.J. Ryan is a free agent.

The point is we have to wait two weeks to find out more, but watch how Liriano is used in spring training and see who the Twins start looking at. My money is on Smoltz. Assuming he'd come back to the American League.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

2010 Closer Profile: Francisco Cordero, Reds

By Todd Farino, www.thecloserreport.com

Team: Cincinnati Reds
Projections: 38-2-2.69-1.39-54(SV-WIN-ERA-WHIP-K)

Average Draft Position: 106th pick No Change

Recommended Draft Round: 11

Team Saves Projection: 45

Injury Risk/Stability: 8/9

Top 50 Rank: #13

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Francisco Cordero is an anomaly in my eyes. He's such a risky closer because of his history of inconsistency for big chunks of seasons. Last year was one of the best years of his career, but owners should take a step back and consider some of the liabilities of drafting Cordero as a #1 closer in 2010. Here are a few. On average, Cordero blows close to eight games per year. Last year he blew 4. His career era is 3.18, last year 2.16. Even more bad news, his K/9 rate declined significantly in 2009 and turning 35 in May isn't helping the possibility of injury or further regression. The good news is the Reds will improve a ton in 2010. Cordero will pitch 70+ innings and get 38-40 saves, but don't expect the great numbers to go along with it.

The True Guru Strategy: I don't like drafting closers like Cordero. He is too much of a wild card and just too old. His ADP has him going in the ninth round and that is too high for Cordero. There are several closers I'd take before him. He is a good value in the 11th round and no sooner.